A LAPAROSCOPY OF “MY” AOWIN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS; Part I.
The historical data on Aowin constituency Parliamentary elections is quite fascinating, but simple and strategic for one political party than the other. There has been seven Parliamentary elections in the then Aowin-Suaman constituency and the now Aowin constituency combined. NDC have presented four Parliamentary candidates so far for these elections, (John Kwakucher{1996, 2000 and 2004}, Mathias Ntow{2008, 2012, and 2016}; Oscar Ofori Larbi{2020}). NPP on the other hand has five different candidates, including 2024; Kingsley Ofori Asante, Alfred Ackaah Essuman, Samuel Adu Gyamfi, E. K Osei and currently Abanga Fuseini.
The fact agrees, that but for the current NDC PC, all NDC PCs win at least two elections before the party replaces them; Kwakucher (1996, 2000), Mathias Ntow (2008, 2012, and 2016). Out of NPP’s four PCs in this constituency, only Samuel Adu Gyamfi won the seat in 2004. Factually, one could conclude that NDC’s replacement of PCs has been more politically strategic than NPP’s; except to say Adu Gyamfi replacing Alfred Ackaah Essuman in 2004 to win the seat as a first timer; but don’t forget that Ackaah Essuman was just a one time PC. Understandably, Suaman constituency tilts more towards NPP than NDC; and the opposite for Aowin, but when Suaman was separated from Aowin in 2004, NPP’s Adu Gyamfi won Aowin with about 5,701 difference; whilst NDC paradoxically won Suaman without sweat.
NDC realizing that John Kwakucher Ackah was unpopular, after three elections, and lost to Adu Gyamfi in 2004, they replaced him with Mathias Ntow for election 2008, and guess what; the new Mathias Ntow took NDC from a loss margin of almost 6k votes, went ahead to win the seat with about 3,898 votes difference; mind you, it was a CHANGE election, which occasioned a very high voter apathy, affecting the incumbent MP. Would you believe that Adu Gyamfi’s accrued votes in 2004 (22,059) is second only to E.K Osei’s figures in 2020 (22,881)? Adu Gyamfi as a four time PC could not go beyond his number of votes obtained from his first contest. That is the true state of Aowin NPP.
Fast forward, when Aowin NDC realized⁰ that Samuel Adu Gyamfi had closed the Parliamentary win margin from 9,005 votes in 2012 to 1,605 votes in 2016; the party sensed danger, and replaced Mathias with Oscar Ofori Larbi for election 2020, who justifiably widened the margin from 1,605 to 5,413 votes in 2020; (almost 400% jump).
One grave sin for Aowin NPP was their inability to know that Adu Gyamfi, as MCE was the surest bet to win the seat in 2020. He had to be persuaded to represent the party before he was made MCE; making Abanga PC in 2020 wouldn’t have been bad either, but tribal discrimination wouldn’t let Aowin thrive; a topic for another day.
NPP without doubt lost Aowin constituency in 2020 because of internal party divisions and unpopular/invincibility of the PC; Adu Gyamfi would tick both boxes if he were PC. That late organization of parliamentary primaries made it difficult to reorganize the party afterwards, NPP PC; E.K Osei, a fresh candidate, with age not on his side, couldn’t do aggressive campaigning in that short time. In fact, E.K Osei as a PC never campaigned at all, he used all his energy on the primaries. Things looked a bit clearer after the primaries, that, people just didn’t want Abanga to be the PC in 2020. Aowin constituency NPP literally collapsed close to the election. I can say about 75% of constituents didn’t know who NPP PC was, apart from his posters which were easily scattered around.
Remember, Oscar Larbi was also a fresh PC for NDC in 2020, but he wasn’t ever fresh in the minds and hearts of his constituents, he has always been a smart politician; he opened his doors for almost everyone, when he was MCE under NDC; a lot of the constituents like him unconditionally; he understands grassroots politics, because he knows very well, the kind of voters he is dealing with. He’s also not a favourite among his constituency executives. The odds were very high for his replacement for this election, but he sailed through.
With the backing of historical facts that every NDC PC in Aowin wins at least two elections in a row, he still remains clear favourite. However, considering how NPP came close in 2016, coupled with the fact that E.K as arguably a weaker opponent, but obtained NPP’s highest votes thus far; a strong, committed and loved NPP candidate can cause a surprise.
Another interesting thing about Aowin politics is that, all NDC presidential candidates since 1996, perform better than their respective Parliamentary candidates. That only candidate who broke the record, is the current MP; Oscar Ofori Larbi, although with just 161 votes difference. Same was the case for NPP in 1996 & 2000. Until Adu Gyamfi changed that phenomenon, so from 2004 till date, NPP PCs obtain more votes than their presidential candidates. And I am sure, if given the chance, Oscar will also ‘reset’ NDC’s trend.
To be continued………..
We live to learn, my thoughts though.
Kwadwo Nyamekye Bigbrain
Grandma’s Grave.
